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Up to one-third of Victorians could be infected with Swine Flu
Monday, 15 June, 2009
It is being suggested that up to one-third of Victorians could now be infected with swine flu, an expert said yesterday, as the Federal Government announced it was preparing to ramp up its response to the virus in coming days. Last night Health Minister Nicola Roxon said all states and territories would move to the "sustain" phase of the Government's pandemic plan this week, bringing them into line with Victoria's strategy to manage the virus. The shift would mean fewer testing and quarantine measures to contain the H1N1 virus and a greater focus on those most at risk of serious illness, such as the elderly, the very young, and those with existing health conditions. "As we see the numbers gradually increasing in other jurisdictions there will be steps over the coming days to move to a consistent alert level," Ms Roxon said.
In Australia, more than 1500 cases have been officially reported, with more than 1000 in Victoria. The actual number is probably much higher than this, as testing for the virus has now restricted to specific cases, and high-risk persons. As routine testing has ceased, the official numbers will be more and more irrelevant.
On the basis of available evidence and expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met. The Director-General of WHO therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6. "The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic," said Dr Margaret Chan late last week. Globally, 74 countries have officially reported about 30,000 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 145 deaths. The first death of a person outside the Americas was reported from Scotland overnight, the person having pre-existing medical problems.
There is no need for travel restriction in Australia at present, as all states move to sustain, a reflection that the risk of acquiring the disease is in all states.
Potential problems for international travellers remain, and although no official travel restrictions exist, travellers from pandemic “hot-spots” may be placed in quarantine at destination if they present with symptoms of the disease. For travellers going to other parts of the world, it may be wise to seek specific advice at a Travel Doctor-TMVC clinic, and discuss the use of tamiflu medication prevention, available through Travel Doctor-Travellers flu kits.
